Wednesday, September 17, 2008

What if it's a tie?

I was playing around with the New York Times electoral map today. It will let you try different scenarios to see which states each candidate could win in order to get the 270 electoral college votes necessary to win. Among the current swing states, if McCain wins VA, OH, and CO, and Obama wins NH, MI, NM, and NV, then the electoral college vote would be 269-269--a tie!

So, what happens then? The House of Representatives would determine the winner, with each state delegation getting one vote. The candidate with 26 or more state delegation votes becomes the winner.

Who would win the House vote?

Two states would break even and not vote: AZ and KS.

McCain would carry these states:
AL, AK, DE, FL, GA, ID, NE, NV, NM, OH, OK, KY, LA, MI, MT, SC, TX, UT, VA, WY

Obama would carry these states:
AR, CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, IA, IN, ME, MD, MA, MN, MS, MO, NH, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, VT, WA, WV, WI

Therefore, by a vote of 28-20, with 2 abstentions, Obama would win.

3 comments:

Mrs. N. said...

Even if McCain wins the "popular vote?" wink wink

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure where you got your numbers. It would break 23-22 for Obama, assuming the democrats pick up all the seats they are expecting to gain. Otherwise the margin is even bigger for McCain.

McCain would take NH, PA, IN, IA, KS, MO, NE, DE, FL, GA, SC, VA, AL, KY, LA, OK, TX, AZ, MT, UT, QY and AK

Obama would win CT, MA, MS, RI, NJ, NY, IL, MI, MN, ND, SD, MD, NC, WV, AR, TN, CO, NV, NM, CA, HI, OR and WA.

The following states would be tied: OH, WI, MS, ID

VT is independent and would likely vote for Obama.

If the republicans keep just two of the highly contested seats they would take back a majority.

Dr. N said...

Anonymous,

It would be the current Congress, not the newly elected Congress that would vote.