I was playing around with the New York Times electoral map today. It will let you try different scenarios to see which states each candidate could win in order to get the 270 electoral college votes necessary to win. Among the current swing states, if McCain wins VA, OH, and CO, and Obama wins NH, MI, NM, and NV, then the electoral college vote would be 269-269--a tie!
So, what happens then? The House of Representatives would determine the winner, with each state delegation getting one vote. The candidate with 26 or more state delegation votes becomes the winner.
Who would win the House vote?
Two states would break even and not vote: AZ and KS.
McCain would carry these states:
AL, AK, DE, FL, GA, ID, NE, NV, NM, OH, OK, KY, LA, MI, MT, SC, TX, UT, VA, WY
Obama would carry these states:
AR, CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, IA, IN, ME, MD, MA, MN, MS, MO, NH, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, VT, WA, WV, WI
Therefore, by a vote of 28-20, with 2 abstentions, Obama would win.