Thursday, October 9, 2008

Top 5: Reasons McCain (Probably) Can't Win



  1. He's a Republican: The Republican Party is in disarray. It has been marked by scandal and an unpopular president. This will be a difficult year for any Republican.
  2. He's not a Democrat: Democratic party registration is surging. There are 4 new Democrats for every new Republican. This means that in order to win, McCain must not only mobilize Republicans and get a vast majority of independents, he also has to win a significant number of Democrats.
  3. The economy is in the tank: Regardless of who is at fault, voters traditionally hold the party that controls the presidency responsible when the economy is poor. (Note: presidents try to take the credit when the economy does well, also; regardless of who is responsible.)
  4. He supports continuation of troop deployment in Iraq: Most voters want the troops to come home, but McCain has been the strongest supporter in the Senate of continued operations in Iraq.
  5. Voters want change: It is difficult to market yourself as the change candidate when you've been in Congress since 1982.
Having said all that, we should remember that last summer we thought McCain's campaign was over, but he staged a remarkable comeback. By and large, McCain is a good candidate. He is well liked among independents. In any other election, without these Top 5 working against him, McCain could've easily won the presidency. It's a testament to his abilities as a candidate that he has been able to keep the election this close.

2 comments:

Tracy said...

VERY interesting. I'm enjoying reading your blog - do not feel adequate to leave comments - but enjoying it nonetheless.

karenwalker said...

LOVE this pic- Especially in October. It reminds me of Count von Count. “FIVE. Five reasons why John McCain can’t win.”