Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Top 5: Things I Will Look for in the Exit Polls

  1. Suburbanites: Republicans do well among rural voters. Democrats do well among urban voters. The suburbs are the battleground. Whichever party wins the suburbs will win the election.
  2. Latinos: Bush won 44% of the Latino vote in 2004. Though not a majority, this is good for a Republican. It helped Bush win some swing states with large Latino populations, such as New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. If Obama wins a significant number of these Latino-Bush voters he could win these swing states.
  3. Catholics: Typically, Catholics divide their votes almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats. Bush won the Catholic vote in 2004, running against a Catholic. Who will win the Catholic vote this time?
  4. Married Females: Traditionally, Republicans do well among married females. But in the 2006 midterms, they lost the married female vote, and lost a lot of seats in Congress.
  5. Reagan Democrats: Or sometimes called conservative Democrats. Sen. Clinton did well with these voters in the primaries. Will they stick with their party and vote Obama, or vote for McCain? These voters could make a difference in some important swing states, such as Pennsylvania and Ohio.

After the polls come out, I will write another post letting you know the results for each of these. What will you be looking for?


Dan Carroll said...

How about the angry white guy vote? Repubs usually win this vote, but I've noticed anecdotelly a change in sentiment.

karenwalker said...

We are forever changed. The constituent with $20 to send to a campaign has been empowered. This is not about the color of a man’s skin- this is about so much more. From now on, we know that we CAN make a difference. We have a common dream. We are the United States of America.