Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Top 5: Predictions for 2009

  1. Obama and Democratic congressional leaders will avoid any issue dealing with homosexuality and abortion (except to modify the Mexico City policy).

  2. Russia will invade a former Soviet satellite nation.

  3. Olympia Snowe will break with Republicans to enable Obama to pass a major piece of his legislative agenda.

  4. Illinois Governor Blagojevich will voluntarily step down without being indicted or impeached.

  5. A Republican will win Virginia’s gubernatorial election.

We'll see how well I do this time next year. What are some of your predictions? Put them in the comment section and we'll see how well you do as well.

In LAPs last poll (n=13), 53% of respondents said that 2008 was not a realigning election, 0% said it was, and 46% said it depended on Obama's actions. For January's poll, I'm asking for your predictions on the economy. Will it be worse, or better, this time next year?

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Rest in Peace, Samuel Huntington

Samuel Huntington, one of the "granddaddies" of political science, passed away yesterday. His most famous work is Clash of Civilizations (1993, 1996). It argued that future conflicts would not involve the traditional East/West, Cold War, type conflicts; rather, future conflicts would result from cultural differences, such as differences between Islamic and Christian societies.

In lesser known works, Huntington advanced theories on how political orders change. I relied upon some of this work in my doctoral dissertation to help understand how the Christian Right has changed.

You can read his obit in the N.Y. Times here:

Samuel Huntington, Political Scientist, Dies at 81 - Obituary (Obit) -