Tuesday, October 23, 2012

State of the Presidential Race, With 2 Weeks Left

With two weeks to go until election day, this is how I see the state of the race.

The popular vote is currently a tie. With only two weeks left, the advantage in a tie goes to whichever candidate has the momentum, which is clearly Romney. Looking at the recent RCP average of polls and the trend on Intrade, Romney is gaining.

But, while I expect him to win the popular vote, I'm less certain that he will be able to win the EC vote.

Much will hinge on what happens in Ohio. Obama is looking strong in Ohio, but it has also become a must-win state for him. If he loses Ohio, I expect him to lose the race.

If Romney, on the other hand, loses Ohio, he can still win but his path is narrow. He would have to pick up Wisconsin and Iowa.

I'm basing these calculations on the assumptions that Romney will win Fla., N.C., Va. and Colo., and Obama will win Penn., N.H., Mich., and Nev.